Population-Consumption v4


The graph above shows the results of a simulation of the Population-consumption model, where 10,000 random distributions of people and environments are evaluated for ecological footprint and happiness. Happiness h is color coded, and historical values are also plotted by the years we transitioned into each range of happiness (also color coded). Because the numbers can be extremely small or extremely large, a logarithmic scale is used for both axes.

Variable ranges are as follows:

Happiness Range:




Epop/Ppop Range:




Env Mean Range:




Env SD Range:




This simulation approximates the full range of possibilities without restrictions in the consumption of ecological resources. There are, however, real limits:

  • People need a minimum footprint to survive
  • The number of maximum environments decreases linearly with total footprint (population times footprint)

The following graph shows a closeup of results from a simulation of 7,170 data points focused on conditions that are within the range of history and potential history subject to ecological limits:

Happiness 0.359524249 to 0.820351378
Epop/Ppop 1 to 2.781453555
Env Mean 0 to 3
Env SD 1.00E-04 to 3
Ppop 1.00E+06 to 2.16E+10

Note that as the number of maximum environments in a given year of history falls below the number of maximum environments assocated with a data point, the data point is considered no longer valid (it is placed at the origin of the graph).

The next graph shows the options left as of 2013. Only 170 remain (2.4% of the total), of which only one has higher values of happiness and population than in 2013:
Of these options, the following are likely to be obtainable within 50 years based on historical rates of change:
The simulation runs out of options within 3,834 years, as shown below:

Continued on p. 2

Related pages:

Population-Consumption v4 Main Page


Better Worlds (blog post)

© Copyright 2014 Bradley Jarvis. All rights reserved.