Interests

Option 1: No Change

As the graph below illustrates, we are rapidly approaching a peak in population growth. This is driven by three major factors: demographics, resource depletion, and pollution.

The world's population is currently undergoing a demographic transition. As people have become wealthier, there has been a decreased need for high birth rates. The population has gradually become older. At the same time, more knowledge about good health care has reduced death rates.

Resource depletion and pollution, however, threaten to dramatically slow down, and then reverse the demographic transition.

Much of the recent rise in wealth has been driven by the availability of cheap energy in the form of fossil fuels, mostly oil. Recent studies indicate that production of oil will reach a peak by the end of this decade. After that, the price of oil will be driven by supply rather than market forces. Other resources, such as fresh water and productive land for growing crops are becoming scarce. Populations of other species which we depend on for food and natural services are either being over-harvested or dying off because we are destroying or otherwise removing their habitats.

Pollution, in addition to creating major health problems for people, overwhelms natural systems (such as ecosystems that support other species) and creates instabilities (such as climate change) that are difficult to deal with.

These factors are not independent. Resource depletion drives pollution, and dealing with pollution requires more resources. Higher population acts as a multiplier on resource depletion (the more people there are, the more gets used). As resources are used up, they become more expensive to get, and they are available to fewer and fewer people. People who depend on the resources for their survival begin to die off. The people who depend on those people then begin to die off.

ABOVE: Population, ecological footprint, energy consumption, and populations of other species (as represented by the WWF's Living Planet Index), all normalized to what they were in 1970. Projections are based upon the trends in human population and ecological footprint found in Scenario 1 of Limits to Growth:The 30 Year Update by Meadows, et al. The strong correlation between ecological footprint and energy consumption was used to project energy consumption. The strong correlation between the Living Planet Index and human population was used to project the Living Planet Index.