Descendants

The average number of future people per person alive today ("descendants") may be as follows for an average lifespan of 75 years:

Option
Min.
Max.
1
2E+03
2E+03
2
9E+03
3E+06
3
1E+08
1E+14
4
> 4E+28
> 3E+40

If there was a constant population from now until the death of the Sun, we would have 1E+08 descendants.

The model implies the following:

  • A factor of 5 improvement for sustainability over business-as-usual
  • A factor of 280 improvement due to impact protection
  • A factor of more than 54 thousand improvement over business-as-usual when settling the Solar System
  • A factor of 1 million improvement due to aggressively settling asteroids when settling the Solar System
  • A factor of more than 268 trillion improvement for settling the Universe over staying in the Solar System

Note: Use of the term descendant is a bit loose when applied to space settlement. Strictly speaking, settlers of the Solar System and beyond would have highly restricted bloodlines back to Earth, since only a small number of people would be making up the core population of each world.

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