Population-Consumption Combined Model

Version 2 Results

Following are the results of a curve fit of world population and consumption (resources consumed per year):

Consumption = A*(r2/r1)^F*t^[B*EXP(C*t^D+E*t^(D-1))]

Population = G*Consumption^.5

where:

"r2" is the previous year's resources

"r1" is the resources two years ago

"t" is the year

The rest are constants:

Variable
Value
Starting Resources (0AD), lb:
1.14E+15
Starting Population (0AD), p:
2.51E+08
A:
2.51E+10
B:
4.98E-05
C:
1.30E-03
D:
1.16E+00
E:
2.60E-01
F:
1.00E+00
G:
1.59E+03

Average Population Error: 3.29E-07

Several scenarios are plotted below:

Variable
No Change
High Growth
No Growth
Cap Growth
Mixed Growth
Resource Growth Rate:
0.00E+00
1.00E-01
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.40E-01
Max. Resources, lb:
2.87E+19
1.32E+25
1.14E+15
1.14E+15
1.32E+25
Capacity, lb:
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
1.00E+02
1.00E+02
Capacity Growth Rate:
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
0.00E+00
2.900E+00
6.00E-01
Max. Consumption, lb:
2.87E+19
2.87E+19
2.03E+13
2.03E+13
8.98E+14

"No Change" is projected from historical data, with no change in behavior

"High Growth" is projected with the minimum resource growth rate starting in 2010 to avoid a population crash, with a maximum speed of the speed of light.

"No Growth" is projected with consumption fixed at the 2010 level, beginning in 2010.

"Cap Growth" is projected with an increase in renewable resources (capacity) starting at 100 lb and consumption fixed at the 2010 level, beginning in 2010. "Cap Growth(2)" is a variant of this, which can achieve the same results by increasing the ratio of capacity to consu mption at a fixed rate (a minimum of 2.7% to avoid a population crash).

"Mixed Growth" is a combination of resource and capacity growth, beginning in 2010, with a maximum speed of 25,000 mph.

If in a given year we start holding our consumption constant, the following graph shows how many years ("Consumption Years") it will take for us to run out of resources:

 

For detailed calculations (zipped Excel spreadsheet), click HERE.

See the current projections for results using the latest data.

 

© Copyright 2009-2011 Bradley Jarvis. All rights reserved.

Back to Main Page